Keep an eye on the weekly numbers for producer deliveries and grain exports, says a provincial crops market analyst.
“Weekly updates from the Canadian Grain Commission provide useful crop market movement and demand information,” said Neil Blue.
The grain commission data covers grain and oilseeds moved in bulk (it doesn’t include container shipments) and it shows producer deliveries are either ahead of last year’s pace or close to it, he said.
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The numbers through Week 15 of the crop year (to Nov. 13) put wheat deliveries at just a hair over seven million tonnes versus about five million a year ago. But global markets have already soaked up a lot of those additional deliveries. Exports topped 5.5 million tonnes by the end of Week 15, a jump of 1.6 million tonnes from the previous year’s pace.
“Wheat has outstanding crop export volume to date,” said Blue. “A reason for that could be the very low carryover of most other crops from last crop year.”
But it could also be a sign that Canada has what millers worldwide want and a price that makes it a good buy.
“The 2022 Canadian wheat crop is of high quality,” he said. “Combined with the weak Canadian dollar, our high quality wheat crop may be providing Canadian exporters with a competitive advantage so far this crop year.”
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The canola numbers are also revealing. Deliveries have lagged last year, with 5.6 million tonnes entering elevators during the first 15 weeks of this crop versus 5.8 million a year ago.
But in both years, well under half had been exported – just under 2.1 million tonnes so far this year and 1.9 million last year.
“After a slow start, canola exports have caught up to last year’s pace,” said Blue. “Domestic use of canola to date is similar to last year’s fast pace as very strong crush margins keep domestic crushers eager to purchase and process canola.”
Barley exports and farmer deliveries are down from year-ago levels but there was a surge of exports at the start of the last crop year, said Blue. He noted that a good portion of production is sold direct to feeders or fed on farm, bypassing the elevator system.
The grain commission data can be found at grainscanada.gc.ca. Click on the Research and Data tab, then on Statistics and then on Grain Statistics Weekly.
