Chicago / Reuters – At 47.1 bushels an acre, last month’s soybean yield estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture was a new all-time high. And the average trader estimate for the USDA’s November projection is higher still, at 47.608 bushels. Even so, the long-term relationship between corn and soybeans suggests current soybean yields remain relatively […] Read more
Grain ‘trade’ at risk of low-balling U.S. soybean yields: Maguire
Put buyers bet CBOT wheat’s strength won’t last
Reuters — Chicago wheat prices may have rallied more than 10 per cent since October 1, but judging by a jump in bearish put option positions tied to the March delivery slot, they are likely to turn lower going into the New Year. More than 3,600 put options were bought at the $4.80, $4.90 and […] Read more
Options suggest soymeal tumble postponed till Jan.
Reuters — Soymeal traders have been bracing for a steep decline in U.S. meal prices for the past several months as a record-large soybean crop was planted and grown. Indeed, traders racked up large positions in bearish put options tied to December soymeal futures throughout last summer, indicating widespread expectations that U.S. meal prices would […] Read more
Poor U.S. wheat markets may be in for more weakness
Exporters in the European Union, Black Sea region, Australia and Canada are all expected to move to protect or gain market share
Reading Time: 4 minutes Reuters/March 2014 Chicago wheat futures started out the 2013 calendar year above $8 a bushel but appear set to end the year struggling to hold above the $6 level. A global pickup in importer demand during late summer had allowed for a brief stint of price strength in early autumn, but the revelation — amid […] Read more
Poor U.S. wheat markets may be in for more weakness
Exporters in the European Union, Black Sea region, Australia and Canada are all expected to move to protect or gain market share
Reading Time: 4 minutes Reuters / March 2014 Chicago wheat futures started out the 2013 calendar year above $8 a bushel but appear set to end the year struggling to hold above the $6 level. A global pickup in importer demand during late summer had allowed for a brief stint of price strength in early autumn, but the revelation […] Read moreAnalysis: Perky EU wheat prices may turn around U.S. market
Reading Time: 2 minutes U.S. winter wheat futures have languished near their lowest levels in more than a year following a healthy start to the young U.S. winter wheat crop and a general easing in global supply balances due to strong production in Canada, the EU and elsewhere. But strong import demand in such places as China and Egypt […] Read more
Log-jam in grain movement has created a sweet spot for long oats
Frustrated oat buyers have been bidding up prices on old oat reserves as new oat supplies must wait in line in the grain-movement network
Reading Time: 2 minutes Reuters / Oat futures have been on a tear lately, jumping more than 20 cents a bushel, or 6.6 per cent, since the start of the month on concerns logistical log-jams will stall the movement of new oat supplies for several weeks. That’s seen many traders putting on a long oats versus short Chicago wheat […] Read moreAnalysis: Spring/HRW wheat spread playing tricks on wheat traders
Minneapolis spring wheat was supposed to have regained a premium over Kansas City hard red winter wheat by now, after having slipped to a rare discount to its lesser-grade cousin at the end of September. But instead spring wheat’s discount to HRW has widened even further, flying in the face of expectations that the end […] Read more
Wheat rally lacks legs and will fizzle in the face of rising supply
U.S. wheat exports are running at their fastest pace in years but predictions of a sustained price rally are overblown
Reading Time: 2 minutes Reuters / The recent uptick in U.S. wheat exports has convinced some traders that prices will buck their recent downward trend and go higher over the coming months. But while firm overseas demand, coupled with the conclusion of the U.S. winter wheat harvest, might well offer support to prices going forward, stiff competition from other […] Read moreAnalysis: Speculators, commercials in rare corn position tango
Usually, large speculators and commercial traders take opposing positions in the corn futures and options market, with speculators favoring long exposure while commercials typically sit heavily short in reflection of their naturally long stance in the physical arena. But this year’s critically low levels of domestic corn supplies have forced commercial players to whittle down […] Read more
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