If you’re expecting history to repeat itself, sell some canola soon or wait until post-harvest.
Prices tend to follow a set pattern over the course of the year, says provincial crops market analyst Neil Blue. A chart using price data from 2011 to 2020 and a baseline of 100 shows prices rise to above 104 in May and June, dip slightly under that level in July, fall back to 100 in August and drop to around 96 in September and October.
“After a harvest low, prices usually rebound as harvest selling pressure subsides and as demand again becomes evident,” said Blue. However, “it is recommended to only forward contract with buyers up to about 50 per cent of expected production.”
While the seasonal price pattern doesn’t alway hold, “it is deserving of a crop marketer’s respect,” said Blue.